Life Isn’t Fair, But If You Don’t Get This Simple Point You’ll Always Be A Sucker

Life is very unfair.  As much as we all wish that the success we enjoy in life is a direct consequence of our well thought out actions and intentions, it probably isn’t.  If you were born poor in rural Bangladesh, could you still confidently say that your quality of life would be as good as it is now?

You’re not pretty enough, thin enough, tall enough, rich enough, you were born to poor parents, you went to a bad school, you were born in the wrong part of the country, you’re the wrong colour…This list of excuses is endless.  It’s undeniable that these characteristics and ones upbringing does indeed have a large impact on your life’s trajectory.

This post isn’t about “victimhood”.  Everyone is aware that you have to hustle to get ahead in life and that without hours of hard work, you simply won’t get anywhere.

This post also isn’t about being “stoic” and just accepting that you can work hard, toil away and yet still achieve very little in life.

This post is about how we can embrace the randomness and entropy that surrounds us every day and use it to our advantage.  In short, this post will teach you how to win at life.  But first, a few illustrations are necessary.

Estimated Time of Arrival

Google Maps has replaced my Sat Nav machine.  I don’t know when it happened, but it definitely beats using a stand alone machine.  I was particularly put off using stand alone Sat Navs ever since someone broke into my car to steal one!  The burglar probably sold it for £20 at the local pawn shop, but left me with a repair bill of £120 for my car.

A few days a week I make a 60 mile commute to my clinic to see patients and make sure everything is running properly.  Get in the car, put my phone in my phone holding thingy and set the destination; “Estimated time of arrival 10.30AM”, it says.

It seems that Google Maps and lots of other navigation apps try to figure out the “quickest route to destination”.  We’ve all probably had instances where we’ve put the navigation on in a familiar neighbourhood and have blindly followed its instructions, even though we just know that if we went our usual route we would have gotten to our destination quicker.

This minor gripe is merely annoying, but the worst kind of problem with Sat Navs is when we go on those longer journeys.  “Estimated time of arrival 10.30AM”, it says, but why is it that most of the time I get to my clinic a few minutes after the ETA?  The worst is when something unforeseen happens, such as an accident on the motorway and I end up at my destination an hour or more late!

Why is it that I never get to my destination an hour or more early?

In England we have roads called “M” roads, which are the largest roads with the highest speed limits.  We then have other major types of roads such as “A” roads and “B” roads.  As you can imagine “A” roads are the next quickest after “M” roads.  Interestingly enough, Sat Nav systems always tend to pick routes with “M” roads whenever possible.

This is an interesting way to get to your destination.  “M” roads are definitely faster, but if there is an accident, then you’re doomed to suffer hours stuck in traffic wondering why that annoying Audi behind you is driving so close when there’s clearly a traffic jam ahead.

“A” roads on the other hand have plenty of tributary roads.  Traffic jam?  No problem, just turn off and join another road and you’ll be on our way with a merely slight delay.

Satellite navigation systems are missing out on a trick in my opinion.  Instead of being able to pick the “fastest route” it should actually give you two options;  “Fastest route, but if something happens on the road you’ll be REALLY late” or “Slower route, but you don’t need to worry about being too late if something goes wrong.”

I wonder how many people would choose the slower route with less variability when it comes to important journeys such as getting to the airport on time to catch a flight?

The Doctor-Patient Relationship

When I used to work as an acute general surgical doctor, we used to quip that it would be more cost effective to carry out a whole body CT scan as patients were carted on to the ward.  Almost, like those body scans at the airport!  It certainly would have made our lives as doctors much easier if we could simply just get the scan done and see whether there was something worrying to operate on straight away, instead of having to sit down with the patient and get their history.

The acute surgical ward was a stressful place to work.  Patients got referred in by the Emergency Department or Community Doctors and then we had to assess the patients and figure out if they needed an emergency operation.

The problem on this ward was that it meant you would have to spend at least 30-40 minutes with the patient, listening to their story, taking blood tests and then you’d have to wait for several hours for the blood tests to come back.  Once the blood tests were back, unless it was an obvious appendicitis or cholecystitis, you would have to organise a CT scan.  If you consider that many patients end up staying in the hospital overnight at a cost of £400, only to be told the following morning that all the investigations were normal and that they can go home, then having a CT scanner placed at the door doesn’t sound like a bad idea as a scan costs around £100 per patient.

You might be thinking that all these tests sound totally unnecessary.  I would agree with you.  The problem in medicine is that when a patient gets referred to you by another doctor, the onus falls on the accepting physician to ensure that nothing is wrong.  In other words the buck stops with you.

What do physicians with this onus do?  Test, test, test!  Do all the blood tests under the sun.  Does this patient actually sound like she has a simple urinary tract infection which can be treated with three days of oral antibiotics?  Doesn’t matter!  We can’t risk it!  We must do all the blood tests which will make sure her bowels, kidneys, liver, pancreas, anaemia levels are all normal and if these all come back normal then she must have a scan of her abdomen as well (exposing her to more than 500 times the radiation of a chest x-ray) to just be safe.

How did medicine get this way?  There seemed to have been a simpler time in medicine, which I personally didn’t get to experience.  My father on the other hand reminisces about those times frequently.  “There used to be a time where doctors were respected and decisions were made mutually with the patient”.  I, unfortunately have been trained and continue to practice medicine in an era of litigation and suspicion.

The threat of litigation and the risk of potentially losing your medical licence with every patient you see causes you to practice medicine a lot more “defensively”.  Even if doing more is potentially harmful, it is often better to be seen to do something (which is defensible in court) than not carrying out an intervention (which is indefensible).  “We might as well as take out that gentleman’s appendix, just in case.”.  If you don’t take out the appendix and then it does turn out to be an appendicitis, then set aside a date for court my friend.

Is This a Good Idea??!!

“Is this a good idea”.  Every budding entrepreneur mutters those words.  Usually, so often that it drives loved ones near to the edge of sanity.

When they ask “is this a good idea?”, what thy are really asking is “will I make tons of money from this?!”.  Many entrepreneurs say ideas don’t mean a thing, but that the execution of the idea is the main thing.  I agree with this sentiment….to a certain extent.  If the person I’m talking to isn’t an action taker, then for definite it doesn’t matter what idea he has, because they’ll never do anything.  Ideas by themselves are meaningless.  But, if I’m talking to a really smart person, who consistently takes action, then yes ideas do matter.

The number of businesses is growing every year.  What’s interesting is how few are successful and how little money most businesses make.  I mean they’re all businesses after all and a lot of them do pretty much the same thing, but why is there such a large difference in revenue between them?

Why is Starbucks so profitable while that small cafe ran by that pleasant family down the road is struggling to make ends meet?

Or better yet, why will that coffee store never become the next Google?  Now obviously, Google are providing a completely different service, but what are the factors that set apart your average family run coffee store to an Internet company based in San Francisco?

The anatomy of a good idea goes a long way to explain whether an idea is worth pursuing or not.

The World Is More Random Than You Realise

The world is a very random place.  We as human beings are predisposed to create narratives to help us make sense of the world.  It gives us the feeling that we can predict the future.  Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winner, has written about how our brains are wired this way.

I remember when I was in high school and my music teacher played a piece of music to me.  It was a recording of a flute playing random notes, in a random order, with no time signature.  What was interesting about listening to this totally random barrage of notes was how my brain couldn’t help but construct melodies out of thin air.  It was the musical equivalent of “don’t think of a purple elephant!”.  Your mind will construct thoughts automatically and come to conclusions as a reflex.

Apart from my own anecdotes, there have been many studies which have proved how truly random the world is and how poor, we as humans are at predicting outcomes and making decisions.

Philip Tetlock, from the University of Pennsylvania made a landmark study: “Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It?  Can We Know?”.  In this study he asked 284 political experts to make 80,000 predictions.  In the study he gave the political experts a topic to consider and then gave them three options to choose from.  He later looked at if the predictions were correct.

The experts turned out to be worse than random.  Meaning that if he had gotten a monkey to randomly pick an answer, the predictions would have been more accurate.  One of the reasons that expert predictors get it wrong so often seems to be a result of knowing too much.  Experts seem to over complicate their predictions by looking at too many factors and making too many outlandish correlations.

For business owners / CEO’s and entrepreneurs, the news isn’t too great either.  I love entrepreneur books and biographies of successful people.  But they do for the most part seem more like fairy tales, rather than scientific studies of success.  Which is fine if you’re into that sort of thing.  However, studies have shown that the strength of a CEO and the success of the company that they are running are not well correlated at all.

If CEO’s were really the rock stars they are made out to be in the popular press then there should be a direct correlation between the success of their companies and their skill level.  If you took a really bad CEO running a company in a certain industry and then took a really good CEO running a company in the same industry, you should expect to find that the better CEO’s company is always outperforming the one ran by the worse CEO.  But the correlation hardly exists!  If the correlation was perfect (i.e. a good CEO always producing the best outcomes and beating the competition) then the correlation coefficient would be 1.  In reality, the best estimates place the coefficient at around 0.3, which is only very slightly better than random!

My point is that skill and knowledge clearly exist, but the world is an incredibly random place.  Most people’s ability to make decisions affecting their future are random at best and worse than average at worst.

How To Not Be A Sucker

What do motorways, being an acute surgical doctor and good business ideas have in common?  One word: asymmetry.

Asymmetry means that there is an unequal relationship present.  To compound this, as the world is so random and unpredictable, you never know when the asymmetry is going to hit you and how much of an impact it will have in your life.

Motorways for example have an asymmetry in terms of getting to your destination on time.  Either you’ll be a little early, on time or if something goes wrong on the roads, such as an accident, then you’ll be extremely late i.e. an asymmetry is present here.

In the world of medicine / surgery, there is an asymmetrical relationship between the physician and the patient.  Theoretically if a doctor makes a mistake with any patient they ever see, they can lose their medical licence.  Patients may genuinely come to harm in some cases, however in the UK, the GMC (General Medical Council) have stated that over 90% patient of complaints / litigation made by patients is unwarranted and unfounded.  There is an asymmetry in the relationship as patients can make a complaint which may be false, but there are no repercussions if their complaint is found to be based on a lie.  Patients do not get any financial repercussions or penalties if their complaint doesn’t get upheld.

These asymmetries exist in a lot of different domains in life.  For whatever reason most people are blind to this and are unaware of such relationships.  But if you are aware of these relationships it will cause you to make better decisions.

The two examples we’ve talked about above are what I call negative asymmetries.  Meaning that if a random even occurs then it will make your life worse.  But, you can also use asymmetries to your advantage!

Take for example business ideas.  Good business ideas have asymmetries present which could result in exponential / unlimited financial returns.  Most business owners simply aren’t aware of these principles.  This is the reason why that small coffee store down your road will always continue to struggle and why that pleasant family will never be financially free – even though they could be.

I could speak a lot about great business ideas, but the two main principles in good business ideas are the ability to scale and detach your own time from your business.

Say that you open a coffee store.  Part of your business mission should be to put systems and protocols in place so that every cup of coffee is produced in the same way at the same standard, the store should always be cleaned in the same way up to a certain standard, the way items are procured and how much they should cost should be standardised, the way customers are greeted and treated should be standardised.

Basically every aspect of the business should be run with protocols in place.  This way, if you, the business owner decide to leave for a couple of months for a holiday, your business will keep on chugging along as usual.  In other words, you’ve created a system which is not attached to your time or presence – you’ve just created a money printing machine, which is exactly what businesses are meant to be.

If you can detach your time from your business, then inevitably you have created a business model that is scalable.  There is no reason why you can’t open up another coffee store usinng the exact same training protocols you have already created in your first store to expand your empire.

Business success is random as we have already demonstrated.  But, if you have a well thought out business which can be scaled then randomness can have a positive impact on your business and life.  As businesses which are designed to scale have asymmetrical returns then you could win big and be financially free.

In life if you don’t set yourself up to win and use randomness to your advantage, then you will always be at the mercy of randomness and asymetries.  You will always lose and be a sucker.

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Baby Boomers Vs Millennials!! (They’re both wrong….)

I have seen this conversation played out many times.  Both in the press and in real life.

The Baby Boomer generation often accuse the younger generations of being lazy, flippant with their money and devoid of the grit that is needed to succeed in life.

The Baby Boomers often argue that leading a happy, financially stable life is not all that hard.  Just work at a job, work your way up the corporate ladder, put money aside for a rainy day, invest in a house and you’ll be set for life.

The Millenials on the other hand often talk about how things have changed compared to a few decades ago.  Jobs are harder to come by, you require a degree for most things nowadays, people also accrue a lot more debt due to going to University, the cost of living has gone up as well as house prices etc.

The public discourse is interesting.  The Baby Boomers are right to an extent.  There are millenials who are fine (like myself).  I worked a lot harder than most people of my age and I already feel financially stable.  I also made sure that I did a degree which would definitely lead to a stable job (medicine).  Others who I grew up with are in a much worse state and this could be partially explained by their laziness and extravagant expenditures even when being dirt poor.

However, I disagree with Baby Boomers on a lot of things.  Advice such as “work hard, save money, don’t spend money on silly things” is obvious advice.  Young people are aware of these sentiments and it doesn’t explain how a whole generation is financially so well off and another generation is doing so badly.

The Baby Boomers got used to a different world where wages increased year on year for doing the same work.  They got used to a world where with a small amount of effort they could buy a house due to their increasing wages.  But what Baby Boomers don’t seem to realise is that their increasing wages had very little to do with anything that they were actually doing.  The reason that they became wealthy was actually due to technological advancements and massive economic growth during their working years.

As older generations don’t realise that this was actually the reason they became financially stable, they keep giving the same advice; “Do well at school, get a degree, get a job, work your way up the corporate ladder, save money, invest in a house…”.

The millennials that follow the classic advice are obviously not getting the same results as the older generations.  But what no one ever talks about is where wealth comes from and how it is created.

This is what is missing from the argument that is always played out.  Millennials (such as myself) should not be demanding house prices to be reduced, or more handouts from the government – because this is unrealistic and economically non-viable.  Millennials should be concentrating on creating new wealth by creating value.  This is the answer that they’ve been looking for.

Build Something A Few People Love

 “It’s better to make a few people really happy than to make a lot of people semi-happy.” – Paul Buchheit

This is a common saying amongst tech entrepreneurs.  Successful tech entrepreneurs have noted that something which a few people really love is always better than something which only a few people merely like somewhat.

This has made sense to me ever since I heard it.  It seemed like common sense: If you make something people merely like a little bit then if your product or service dies or disappears then no one would really care that much.  And if you make something a few people really love then it is likely that more people will think it’s “really really good” or just “really good”.

But I’ve thought about this subject a lot deeper and after reading some of Nassim Taleb’s* essays and books, I think I was missing a key insight.  The insight is that minorities, if vocal enough, often win and impose their beliefs and wants on other people who remain indifferent.

Let’s take the example of GMOs and Non GMOs.  If we have a family (mother, father, son and daughter) and the daughter decides she is staunchly opposed to GMO foods.  It is likely that the rest of the family will cave in and everyone in this family will start to eat non-GMO foods to placate the daughter.

As there isn’t a massive price and taste discrepancy between GMO and non-GMO foods the family doesn’t mind eating non-GMOs.

Now let’s say that this same family attends a party.  The host of the party will be informed that the whole family doesn’t eat GMO foods.  The host decides that it would be easier to make all the food at the party Non-GMO, rather than making separate dishes for this one family.  After all the price is pretty similar so shouldn’t effect the budget of the party by very much.

All of a sudden this large party of say 50-100 people are all subject to eating Non-GMO foods without even noticing and more importantly this large group of people don’t even care!

As a result of this party, local vendors will start to realise that they can increase their profits by selling Non-GMO foods.  As a result, a large part of society is made to eat Non-GMOs despite not caring much about eating GMOs.

There are two things at play here.  First the cost different between GMOs and Non-GMOs is not that much.  Also, there is an asymmetry present in this example: The people who won’t eat GMOs will not eat GMOs under any circumstance – they are staunchly opposed to it.  However, the people who eat GMOs do not mind eating non-GMOs.  When this asymmetry is in place, the minority can overtake the majority and impose changes on everyone.

Halal (Muslim approved food) is another example of an asymmetry.  Apparently a large proportion of the meat imported to the UK is Halal.  The asymmetry is present – non-Muslims don’t really care what type of meat they eat, but Muslims won’t eat anything but Halal.  The price of buying Halal meat will also be pretty much the same as non-Halal meat.

McDonald’s is also an interesting example, which is relevant to business.  Everyone I know of has had some sort of McDonald’s food at some point in their lives.  In fact when I go on holiday these restaurants are often packed with foreigners as a respite from exotic food or the possibility of contracting some type of food poisoning.  The fact is that society is largely indifferent to McDonald’s – no one really hates McDonalds – whether upper or working class, no matter which country they are from.  So, we can all agree that McDonald’s doesn’t make the best burgers in the world, but no one really hates them either, which means that people still go.

Now to turn this conversation back to business.  I am wondering whether this effect is what plays out in successful startups and makes business spread.  1 – Do they have a core group of people who love the product, 2 – Is there an asymmetry where people adopt a certain technology/service, refuse to give it up and therefore force people to also use the product or service and 3 – are the rest of the people who end up using the startup indifferent to adopting the change.

Thinking about different startups, I really do believe this is closer to the truth than I had originally thought.

If we take Google as an example.  I cannot even remember when I made the switch between Yahoo! and Google.  It just seemed to happen and I became just another user – I was indifferent to the change.  It is likely that when Google first launched, there were a core group of users that loved it and refused to use Yahoo!.  There was an asymmetry here – Googler’s refused to use other search engines.  The rest were indifferent and the switch to a different search engine was easy to make.  As a result Google spread, when people started to simply set the homepage as Google, no one was staunchly opposed to using Google/in love with Yahoo!.  This is probably how I made the jump without even thinking.

Moral of the story?  Make something people love!  This way, to create a massive success you only need three or four percent of converts to start using your startup instead of penetrating the whole market.

Good advice after all it seems!

* However, Mr Taleb was mainly talking about how this insight effects society, rather than startups and entrepreneurs.

NHS Startup Part XVII – The End

Gosh, it’s been a long time since I posted about my startup.

I’ve decided that this will be the last blog post which talks about the minutiae of my startup and the challenges a new company in the healthcare scene has to face in the UK.

The reason this will be the last update is because the specifics of my startup are not helpful to other entrepreneurs / healthcare innovators out there.  The fact is that everyone will have to traverse a terrain which is different and face challenges which are different.  This I have come to realise is why so much advice surrounding entrepreneurship is so general.

“Solve a problem”

“Expect the unexpected”

“Provide value”

“Make connections”

These platitudes may seem clichéd and obvious, but they are cliched for a reason – it’s the truth and giving advice more specific is often not relevant or helpful.

Having said that here’s another update!

I Am a GP Partner Now

GP partners are owners of clinics in the UK.

This is a very privileged position I am in.  Basically I now have a test bed to test my application in.  I also have an allocation of money from the practice to keep building my app.  So, I am very lucky indeed to be have been given such a massive opportunity.

This is the best position a founder could be in!  Solving your own problem with outcomes which will be beneficial to yourself validates your idea for a business and ensures that at least one person will benefit from your product or service!

Keep in mind that 88% of founders fail because they fail to make something that people really want and will pay for.

To Spread or Not to Spread

The app is being used in a few test beds now.  As such I haven’t pushed for it to go into more and more healthcare settings.

The reasons for this is that the app has potential to become really killer.  But I need time to build the rest of the necessary features.  This will take 8 months or so.

It may seem risky to not keep pushing for it to go into more and more places, but there are a number of reasons why  think it’s a good idea to not spread to quickly in the healthcare space.

The first is that it’s very difficult to get into anywhere – but now that I am convinced that I will be able to get into more places, I need to make sure to not blow it by providing bad services or a crappy product.

The other reason is that when you’re creating enterprise software, the app itself is a small part of the whole business.  This is another reason why it’s a bad idea to learn to code just to make a business.  The fact is that people don’t just pay for an app (particularly in healthcare), but infrastructure, support, insurance, certification, governance etc etc.  Also, as you provide software to more settings and businesses, more code needs to be written to provide infrastructure for billing, handling new data and new protocols have to be written for implementation.  The legal implications and finances also becomes a whole lot more complicated.

Looking at it this way, I’ve figured that the best way to go forward is to really make an awesome product, get sales lined up and then launch in more places once we’re happy that we can deliver something remarkable.

The Future

The future looks good at this point.  I’m solving a real problem, we have customers, the scope of the app could make a really positive change for both patients and healthcare providers.

There will be plenty of challenges up ahead.  However, just because I’m not writing these in-depth updates doesn’t mean much for followers of the blog.

The fact is that anyone who really wants to do what I am doing can just read my blog and follow me.  As the whole blog is about entrepreneurship and healthcare, people will learn a lot more by reading and understanding the general view-point of an entrepreneur than to follow all the details closely.

Because let’s face it, how many other people out there are GP Partners and creating software for the NHS?

This Is What Starting A Business Looks Like

Starting a startup is hard work.  It’s a very different kind of “hard” work than what most jobs require.  It’s not as difficult physically, as doing something like construction and it’s not as intellectually demanding as something like medical school.  However it is emotionally and psychologically draining as there is so much uncertainty involved.

Not only this, but there is added pressure on the founders of an early stage startup because it’s testing whether their “vision” is real or actually a hallucination.  This can make them feel very bare and vulnerable.

I think the best way to describe what it feels like to be a solo founder is via this video:

Visionary?  Or Just having a hallucination?

First you have to be willing to put yourself on the spot, be willing to be ridiculed and possibly laughed at.

Very few people are willing to be that first person dancing to their own tune though.  Most people never even get to this stage and they fail because they didn’t even get started.

Then when you’ve finally proved that you’re not insane and that there’s a party going on which is going to make an impact and a positive change, people will join you – these are your early adopters and your co-founders.

Then before you know it you’ve got a whole business dancing to the tune of common interests and values, working towards a common goal.

How To Tell When You’re Speaking To A Manager

“I’ll Try”

“I can’t promise”

“I’m not sure what my boss will say about that”

“That’s not possible”

“We can’t do that”

“It’s against policy”

“I can’t make someone else do their job”

Managers avoid accountability and often believe they are powerless to make an impact in the world.

Leaders however, seek out to be made accountable as they realise they can have a large impact in the world by working with those around them.

“Hey….What Languages Is Your App Written In?! What Should My App Use???” Here’s The Definitive Answer!

Entrepreneurs often discuss this topic ad nauseam.  It’s often a tell that the entrepreneur in question has no idea about tech and is just trying to sound well-informed.

My advice is this: If you are not technical then don’t waste more than thirty minutes of your time worrying about what language your app should be written in.

Here’s the lowdown on what non technical people need to know.

The most common server-side languages are PHP, followed by Ruby and Python.  If you’re making an app for an Apple device then you’ll be using Objective-C.  Android uses mostly Java.

Your data gets stored on a database (this is the reason why when you refresh your page your Amazon account doesn’t disappear, as your data isn’t stored by the browser, but on a database somewhere).  The most common databases are MySQL and NoSQL.

Some people like to argue saying that one language is better, faster, easier to code than the other.  Some people say that Ruby is the quickest and therefore you should be using this for your app.

So what should you use to make your app?  Well I would say to decide, you first need to become aware of what you are actually trying to achieve.

As an entrepreneur all you should be worried about is getting your product out, scaling and then being in a position to hire more people.

Basically if you are making an app, every order of magnitude you hit will require a huge build to cope with demand.  The code used in your MVP won’t be able to keep up with 10,000 active users at the same time.  It will require another large build.  When you reach 100,000 people you’ll need another big build.  In essence, if you are aiming to go big, then you’ll need to hire people to scale (this is also one of the reasons why if you’re not a coding ninja already,  you shouldn’t learn how to code to build a business, as it’ll take you 10 years to gain mastery in this domain).

And this is the reason why you shouldn’t really care about what the actual languages being used in your app are, but how easy it is to hire people who can code in those languages/technologies.  

PHP is by far and away the most popular server-side language on the web.  As of today >82% of the web uses this technology.  Compare this with 0.5% using Ruby and 0.2% using Python.  (You can see the stats on this web page: Click me!)

In terms of databases MySQL is the most popular.  (Click here for a breakdown of database use: Click me!)

So this is my point.  If your app uses the most popular languages then you will be able hire anyone from anywhere in the world to build and iterate for you.  It also drives costs down.  If you choose much less popular languages such as Python and Ruby then you won’t be able to scale, you’ll have a much harder time to find someone to hire and it will cost you more.

Try to avoid fads.  A lot of startups are using things like MongoDB, for their databases, but there really is no point.  MySQL does everything you need.

And what about people who say that it’s much quicker to build in Ruby / Python?  Well if you’re making a MVP, the difference in time is minimal.  The outcome and what your app will be able to do will also be minimal.  So basically, it’s a non issue.  What will be an issue is that if you use languages which are much less popular, you will have a much more difficult time scaling and hiring.

I also believe that this reasoning should also guide you with regards to what languages you should pick if you want to learn to code.  I can’t believe the number of people who don’t know Javascript, PHP and MySQL.  They’re shooting themselves in the foot as they will inevitably have to return to these at some point if they’re serious about code.